The September 5th coup in Guinea may have received a lot of condemnations but it also offers an opportunity to recalibrate a country whose development has been stalled by decades of ethnic division.
Since independence in 1958, Guinea has been dominated politically by two ethnic groups – the Manlinke (or Mandingo) and their close cousins, the Susu (French Sousou). Together with the Fulani (or Peul), these three constitute the largest segment of the nation’s estimated 12 million population, which comprises a total of 24 ethnic groups.
With about 40 percent of the population, the Fulanis constitute the majority, followed by the Malinkes with 30 percent and Susu 20 percent. Yet the Fulanis, a largely nomadic and business-oriented group, feel largely sidelined politically. And their efforts to resist this status quo has set the country on a path of constant tension.
Guinea is a very important element of the 13th to 15th century Mali or Mande empire, which comprised the lands that are modern day Guinea, Senegal, Mauritania and Mali. At its peak, Mande was the largest empire in West Africa and was once ruled by the famous Mansa Musa, considered one of the wealthiest people ever.
Modern day Guinea, endowed with abundant mineral resources, shares borders with six countries: Sierra Leone, Liberia, Ivory Coast, Senegal and Guinea Bissau.
Guinea is also the source of both the Niger and Senegal rivers.
Some of West Africa’s greatest historical figures hail from the country, the likes of anti-French resistance emperor, Samory Toure. Guinea’s first president, Sekou Toure, a descendant of Samory, was one of Africa’s renowned independence leaders. He stood out especially for his idealistic speeches about Pan-Africanism, with a remarkable oratory skill, which made him a strong opponent of Western colonial interest in Africa.
Under Toure, Guinea famously served as safe haven for many African independence heroes, notably the South African antiapartheid heroin Miriam Makeba and Ghana’s Kwame Nkrumah.
Following his removal in a military coup, Nkrumah was invited to Guinea by Toure who declared and treated him as co-president. until the Ghanaian’s death in 1972.
It was ironical though that Sekou Toure couldn’t maintain those Pan-African ideals at home. His rule was characterized by mass migration of his countrymen – mainly Fulanis – who faced frequent jailing and sometimes public hanging for their opposition to his authoritarian rule.
Guinea was the only West African country that opted for complete independence from France, after a referendum rejected French proposal for it to remain a semi-autonomous member of French West Africa. In retaliation, the French not only withdrew all aid, according to historical reports, they also destroyed all infrastructure built with French money.
Toure, a Malinke, branded the Fulanis as traitors for their supposed opposition to the independence struggle. The ensuing mass migration of Fulanis is the reason there is a large number of them scattered across the region, notably in Sierra Leone, Senegal, Mali, Gambia and Guinea Bissau.
Because of their nomadic nature, Fulani presence extends beyond the 13 West African countries where they are highly concentrated, to the central Africa region, including Cameroon and CAR, and as far as in Sudan and South Sudan.
Guinea is the only country where Fulanis form the majority of the population. They control the country’s economy through their dominance of the commerce sector. And they have made sure to use the power that comes with that to their advantage.
When Saikou Toure died in 1984, Lansana Conteh, a Susu, seized power in a military coup. After 24 years, following Conteh’s death in 2008, Musa Dadis Camara seized power. Dadis is from the minority Guerze tribe, who are predominantly found in the largely neglected, epidemic-prone southeastern Forest Region of the country.
Dadis is one of only two Guineans from a minority group to head the country. The first was Louis Lansana Beavogui, who is from the Toma ethnic group, also from the south.
Beavogui stayed in office for only eight days after Toure’s death, when the military seized power.
Dadis stayed for about 11 months when an attempt on his life saw him replaced by General Saikouba Conateh, another Malinke.
This apparent Malinke hegemony continued when Conde emerged winner of the disputed 2010 elections, leaving the Fulanis increasingly disillusioned.
The Fulani’s over six decades longing for political control is often met with concerns by the other ethnic groups that with their control of the economy, it would be too much to entrust them with power.
Consequently, ethnic based violence are common during elections in Guinea. According to the World Bank, more than 60% of its population is under the age of 24; they mostly engage in the violence.
The 2010 election, rather than break from the chaotic ethnocratic past of the country, aggravated it. It was the closest a Fulani came to winning the presidency. In the first round, the leading Fulani candidate, Cellou Dalein Diallo, won 44% of the vote, ahead of Conde, his closest contender, with just 18%. In the second round Conde won with 52%.
For Fulanis, that was just impossible to believe. But what was also obvious was the alliance between the Malinkes and the Susus.
Nonetheless, given his history as an opposition activist, Conde’s election kindled hope for reforms and the healing of the ethnic division. According to his critics, not only did he fail to achieve that, but Conde exploited it to his gain, thereby taking it to another level.
Majority of the victims of his eleven-year rule – dead or imprisoned – are Fulanis. The deep-rooted feeling about this is evident in the current post-coup discussion, with calls for his prosecution coming mainly from Fulanis.
The Pan-African civil society movement, Africa Rising, recognizes the opportunity the coup offers in its response to it.
While condemning the military’s action, it also sees it as a blessing in disguise, appealing to the junta to undo the effect of the “undemocratic” actions of Conde in the last two years.
The group says in a statement that Conde’s move to impose himself on the people of Guinea for a third term and his “high-handed” response to resistance to it was “characteristic of dictatorships” in Africa.
“We strongly condemn the coup…and demand for the immediate release of President Conde… In the same vein, we called the military junta to release all citizens including activists and journalists languishing in jail during Conde’s rule,” the group says.
The fact that coup leader Lt. Col. Mamady Doumbouya is himself a Malinke may be a cause a concern for the Fulanis, but it is also a blessing in disguise. If he had been from another ethnic group, or worst a Fulani, it could have almost certainly pushed Guinea on the brink of civil war, say observers.
According to reports, Doumbouya is himself a product of the ethnic based politics Conde allegedly espoused. He set up the Special Forces unit within the Guinean army allegedly to suppress opposition to his plans and he singled out Doumbouya to head it.
Although the history of military juntas in Africa leaves no room for trust in the populace, if the promises and actions of Col. Doumbouya are anything to go by, his decision to overthrow Conde represents a huge opportunity to resolve this over 60 years of ethnic division.
The junta’s ban on the formation of groups or public demonstrations in support of either the military or any other group suggests that Doumbouya has no plans to stay for long in power,
Nonetheless, it is a matter of wait-and-see if he will fulfill his promises of an inclusive transition government and conduct a credible election, which will go a long way in restoring the confidence of majority Guineans, regardless of ethnicity, on the political class.
